Two giants are on a boat. One of them falls off...

Common knowledge has it that China and India both have huge populations and great economic potential. Common knowledge also has it that while India is doing well, China is doing better. Therefore -common knowledge concludes- China will lead in the twenty-first century, and India will just do ok -as a second-tier power at best.

Yasheng Huang and Tarun Khanna don't agree.

According to an article written by the both of them in 2003 (Can India Overtake China?), the fact is that India is far more likely to reach economic success in the long term.

Why?

Because, while China is host to an impressive amount of foreign direct investments, India makes its own investments. In short -as Yasheng and Khanna put it- though many products are stamped "made in China", few of them are actually produced by Chinese companies. Something that can't be said about India's very own economic heroes.

In addition, while the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) still represses entrepreneurship at a low level, India does nothing but hail its most successful economic agents.

What this all means is that while India currently is an illustration of the messiness of democratic development (in all economic, social, and political dimensions), in the long run, China might itself illustrate the limits of economic and political dirigisme.

The difference is: one is an investment; the other is a shaky bet.

Photo credits: Temple University.